Issue 03 · April 2026 · The Drift
Decision-grade intelligence

Issue 03: The Drift

Decision-grade intelligence
Brent Crude
$96.0
EU Carbon
~€100
Battery 4hr
<$100
What this dashboard shows
In 2025 the transition invested $2.3 trillion (BNEF). Under the headline, renewable power investment fell 9.5% while grids and electrified transport carried the growth. The dashboard below tracks where that capital is actually landing and at what cost.
Key Performance Indicators
Brent Crude
$96/bbl
+17%
ICE · 22 Apr 2026
Transition Investment
$2.3T (2025)
+8%
BNEF · Jan 2026
Battery LCOE (4hr)
<$100/MWh
-13%
BNEF · Feb 2026
Africa Solar (2025)
4.5 GW
+54%
AFSIA · Feb 2026
EU Carbon Price
~€100/tCO₂
+33%
ICE · Mar 2026
Global EV YTD
2.2M units
-8%
Benchmark MI · Mar 2026
Corporate PPAs (2025)
55.9 GW
-10%
BNEF · Feb 2026
Dangote Petrol
₦1,200/L
+20%
Nairametrics · 8 Apr
GenCo Settlement
₦3.3T approved
15 plants
Statehouse · 5 Apr 2026
Nigeria Grid PAF
30% of 13.6 GW
-4pp
NERC · Mar 2026
NERC Mini-Grid
30 biz days
Up to 10 MW
NERC R-001-2026
Chariot Lithium
254 sq km
6 licences
Chariot ASX · 10 Mar
Gas Supply Nigeria
43% of required
692 mmscf
NISO · Feb 2026
Form Energy Deal
12 GWh
Largest LDES
REW · 26 Mar 2026
EU State Aid (Apr)
€11B approved
Italy+Denmark
EC · 1 + 6 Apr 2026
Clean vs Fossil Investment ($T)
$2.5T $2.0T $1.5T $1.0T $0.5T 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Clean Energy Fossil Fuel
Source: BNEF, IEA. Clean energy investment now 2x fossil fuel.
Brent Crude 2026 ($/bbl)
$120 $100 $80 $60 $119 $93 ceasefire JanFebMar1 Apr7 Apr8 Apr10 Apr
Source: ICE, Trading Economics. Peak $119, crashed 13% on ceasefire.
Levelized Cost of Electricity by Source ($/MWh, Global Midpoint 2024/2025)
Onshore Wind
$34
$23-75
Solar PV
$43
$28-117
Hydropower
$57
$47-68
Geothermal
$81
$61-102
Battery (4hr)
<$100
$80-120
Gas CCGT
$102
$77-130
Offshore Wind
$110
$72-167
Coal
$117
$68-166
Nuclear (new)
$141
$88-221
Africa Solar+Storage
$76
AFSIA est.
Sources: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs 2024, Lazard LCOE+ v18 (Jun 2025), BNEF LCOE 2026, AFSIA Africa Solar Outlook 2026. Midpoint of unsubsidised range. Battery 4hr from BNEF. Gas CCGT rose 16% to record $102/MWh in 2025. Onshore wind is the cheapest new-build source globally.
Electricity Grid Composition (9 Countries)
UK
2025 · 290 TWh
44% RE
Wind29.7%
Gas26.8%
Nuclear13.5%
Solar7%
Other23%
NESO
China
2024 · 9,700 TWh
35% RE
Coal58%
Hydro13%
Wind10%
Solar9%
Other10%
Ember / IEA
Brazil
2024 · ~700 TWh
83% RE
Hydro55%
Wind13%
Solar9%
Gas/Other23%
Ember / IEA
Germany
2024 · ~510 TWh
55% RE
Wind27%
Coal23%
Solar14%
Gas13%
Other23%
Ember
India
2025 H1 · ~2,100 TWh
24% RE
Coal71%
Solar9.2%
Hydro6%
Wind5.1%
Other8.7%
Ember
Nigeria
2025 · ~30 TWh
25% RE
Gas70%
Hydro22%
Solar2%
Other6%
NERC · Solar+wind <3% vs 82% target
Kenya
2024 · ~13 TWh
~90% RE
Geothermal41%
Hydro30%
Wind16%
Thermal/Other13%
KenGen / IRENA · Targeting 100% clean by 2030
Morocco
2024 · ~43 TWh
~40% RE
Coal/Gas40%
Wind18%
Solar (inc CSP)15%
Hydro7%
Other20%
IRENA / IEA · Targeting 52% RE by 2030
South Africa
2024 · ~240 TWh
~20% RE
Coal70%
Solar8%
Wind6%
Nuclear5%
Other11%
Ember / Eskom · REIPPPP driving solar surge
Market Signals · April 2026
SignalValueChangeSource
Transition investment 2025$2.3T+8% YoYBNEF ETIT 2026
Electrified transport 2025$893B+21% YoYBNEF
Renewable energy 2025$690B-9.5% YoYBNEF
Grid investment 2025$483BUp stronglyBNEF
IEA total energy investment$3.3T+2% realIEA WEI 2025
Tinubu GenCo settlement₦3.3T15 plants signedStatehouse, 5 Apr
NERC Mini-Grid permit window30 biz daysUp to 10 MWNERC R-001-2026
Chariot lithium Nigeria254 sq km6 licences, spodumeneChariot ASX, Mar
Form Energy + Crusoe deal12 GWhLargest LDES orderREW, 26 Mar
EU state aid approved (Apr)€11BItaly H₂ + Denmark OSWEC, 1 & 6 Apr
Brent crude (peak)$113/bbl+17% war spikeICE, Apr 2026
Brent crude (post-ceasefire)$95-98/bblSettledICE, 22 Apr
Hormuz joint warningIEA/IMF/WB"Global energy shock"14 Apr joint statement
Dangote petrol (gantry)₦1,200/L+20% post-ceasefireNairametrics, 8 Apr
Nigeria Plant Availability30%↓ from 34%NERC Mar 2026
Nigeria gas supply692 mmscf/d43% of requiredNISO Feb 2026
European BEV sales YoY+16%Feb 2026ACEA
BYD electric bus sales Mar+71%YoYCleanTechnica
UK grid queue 2024700+ GW60% speculativeOfgem, Apr reforms
Battery LCOE (4-hr)<$100/MWh-13%BNEF
Onshore wind LCOE (global)$34/MWhCheapest new-buildIRENA
Africa solar+storage (24hr)$76/MWhBeats new fossilAFSIA
EU carbon allowance~€100/tCO₂+33%ICE
Africa clean invest. share2%of $3.3T globalIEA / RMI
The Climate Ledger
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© 2026 · Data: BNEF, IEA, IRENA, NERC, Ember, AFSIA, NESO, Lazard