Read the series as three moves rather than a trend. War took Brent from $63 to $126 between January and the end of April. De-escalation took it back to $73.74 by 24 June.

Renewed strikes and a pipeline attack took it to $97 by 24 July.

A round trip of that size in seven months tells you about the risk premium, not about demand. Anyone sizing an African energy project against a Brent forecast this year was working with a number that moved 99% peak to trough.

Put the two numbers beside each other and the gap is arithmetic rather than rhetoric. Africa's roughly 3% of $2.2 trillion is about $66 billion a year.

That serves a continent holding 18% of the world's people and, on IEA and AFSIA estimates, 60% of its best solar resource.

The electricity sector contracted 15.30% in a quarter when the wider economy grew 3.89%. That divergence is the conversion problem showing up in the national accounts rather than in a regulator's factsheet.

Battery storage at $78/MWh fell 27% in a year and now sits below gas CCGT at $102. Africa solar plus storage at $76 undercuts both.

Connect that to the first chart. Gas CCGT is the only line here that moves with Brent, and Brent moved 99% this year.

The renewable and storage numbers are set by manufacturing cost curves. That is why they kept falling through both the war and the peace.

Nigeria and South Africa are the two African grids here still above 70% fossil, and they are also the two largest. Kenya at roughly 90% renewable shows the mix is not a continental constraint.

Scale is the harder comparison. Nigeria generates about 30 TWh for 220 million people. The UK generates 290 TWh for 69 million.