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The Climate Ledger
Decision-grade intelligence

Issue 04: When a War Changes the Energy Equation

Decision-grade intelligence
Brent Crude
$126
EU Carbon
~€100
Battery 4hr
<$100
What this dashboard shows
UK wind and solar saved Britain £1.7 billion in gas imports since the Hormuz disruption began. Brent holds at $126/bbl, its highest since 2022. The same supply shock raising Nigeria's export revenues is accelerating the renewable transition in Europe and Asia. The security argument is now clean energy's strongest argument. The dashboard below tracks where the capital is landing and at what cost.
Key Performance Indicators
Brent Crude
$126/bbl
+31%
ICE · May 2026 · Highest since 2022
Transition Investment
$2.3T (2025)
+8%
BNEF · Jan 2026
Battery LCOE (4hr)
<$100/MWh
-13%
BNEF · Feb 2026
Africa Clean Energy VC
$275m
+298% YoY
TechPoint Africa · up from $69m in 2024
Africa Solar (2025)
4.5 GW
+54%
AFSIA · Feb 2026
Nigeria Oil Production
1.66 mbpd
New high
NUPRC · April 2026 · Lifted by $126 Brent
Nigeria Grid PAF
31% of 13.6 GW
+1pp
NERC · April 2026 · 4,286 MW available
Gas Supply Nigeria
43% of required
692 mmscf
NISO · Feb 2026
EU Carbon Price
~€100/tCO₂
+33%
ICE · May 2026
Lightrock Clean Fund
$500m
Africa + Asia
Nairametrics · 15 May 2026 · Growth equity stage
UK Clean Energy Savings
£1.7bn
Gas import hedge
Carbon Brief · May 2026 · Saved since Iran war began
Lagos AI Campus
100 MW
Commissioned
Kasi Cloud LOS1 · West Africa's first hyperscale AI campus
Global EV YTD
2.2M units
-8%
Benchmark MI · Mar 2026 · Ethiopia bucking global trend
Ethiopia EV Share
60%+ new reg.
120k EVs
CleanTechnica · IEA EV Outlook 2026 · ICE ban extended to trucks
Carbon Pricing Revenue
$107bn
Record
World Bank · 2025 actual · Growing faster than forecast
RE Investment Gap
$1tn+ /yr by 2030
Gap
UNCTAD · May 2026 · 80% from private capital needed
Nigeria GDP (Q1 2026)
3.89% y/y
↑ from 3.13%
NBS · 25 May 2026 · Electricity sector contracted 15.30%
DisCo Revenue (Feb)
₦196.7bn
81% eff.
NERC Feb 2026 · ₦80.5bn shortfall · Eko led at 94.12%
Corporate PPAs (2025)
55.9 GW
-10%
BNEF · Feb 2026
GenCo Settlement
₦3.3T approved
15 plants
Statehouse · 5 Apr 2026
Clean vs Fossil Investment ($T)
$2.5T $2.0T $1.5T $1.0T $0.5T 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Clean Energy Fossil Fuel
Source: BNEF, IEA. Clean energy investment now 2x fossil fuel. Grids and electrified transport drove 2025 growth as renewable investment fell 9.5%.
Brent Crude 2026 ($/bbl)
$130 $110 $90 $70 $119 $93 ceasefire $126 Jan Feb Mar Apr 1 Apr 8 Mid-Apr May
Source: ICE. Peak $119 on April 1 war shock; dipped $93 on ceasefire; climbed to $126 in May as Hormuz partial closure persists. Highest since 2022.
Levelized Cost of Electricity by Source ($/MWh, Global Midpoint 2024/2025)
Onshore Wind
$34
$23-75
Solar PV
$43
$28-117
Hydropower
$57
$47-68
Geothermal
$81
$61-102
Battery (4hr)
<$100
$80-120
Gas CCGT
$102
$77-130
Offshore Wind
$110
$72-167
Coal
$117
$68-166
Nuclear (new)
$141
$88-221
Africa Solar+Storage
$76
AFSIA est.
Sources: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs 2024, Lazard LCOE+ v18 (Jun 2025), BNEF LCOE 2026, AFSIA Africa Solar Outlook 2026. Midpoint of unsubsidised range. Battery 4hr from BNEF. Gas CCGT rose 16% to record $102/MWh in 2025. Onshore wind is the cheapest new-build source globally. At $126 Brent, the gap between renewables and gas widens further.
Electricity Grid Composition (9 Countries)
UK
2025 · 290 TWh
44% RE
Wind29.7%
Gas26.8%
Nuclear13.5%
Solar7%
Other23%
NESO · 90%+ clean on multiple days in May 2026
China
2024 · 9,700 TWh
35% RE
Coal58%
Hydro13%
Wind10%
Solar9%
Other10%
Ember / IEA · "Strict controls" order on new fossil infrastructure May 2026
Brazil
2024 · ~700 TWh
83% RE
Hydro55%
Wind13%
Solar9%
Gas/Other23%
Ember / IEA
Germany
2024 · ~510 TWh
55% RE
Wind27%
Coal23%
Solar14%
Gas13%
Other23%
Ember · Last coal plant offline April 2026. Mix data reflects 2024 baseline
India
2025 H1 · ~2,100 TWh
24% RE
Coal71%
Solar9.2%
Hydro6%
Wind5.1%
Other8.7%
Ember
Nigeria
2025 · ~30 TWh
25% RE
Gas70%
Hydro22%
Solar2%
Other6%
NERC · Grid frequency outside 49.75–50.25 Hz throughout April 2026
Kenya
2024 · ~13 TWh
~90% RE
Geothermal41%
Hydro30%
Wind16%
Thermal/Other13%
KenGen / IRENA · Microsoft/G42 1 GW Olkaria data centre cancelled May 2026
Morocco
2024 · ~43 TWh
~40% RE
Coal/Gas40%
Wind18%
Solar (inc CSP)15%
Hydro7%
Other20%
IRENA / IEA · Targeting 52% RE by 2030
South Africa
2024 · ~240 TWh
~20% RE
Coal70%
Solar8%
Wind6%
Nuclear5%
Other11%
Ember / Eskom · REIPPPP driving solar surge
Market Signals · May 2026
SignalValueChangeSource
Brent crude$126/bblHighest since 2022ICE · May 2026
Nigeria oil production (Apr)1.66 mbpdStrongest in recent yearsNUPRC via Nairametrics
Nigeria GDP growth (Q1 2026)3.89% y/yUp from 3.13% in Q1 2025NBS · 25 May 2026
Nigeria oil GDP share (Q1 2026)3.92%Down from 3.97% Q1 2025NBS · 25 May 2026
Nigeria Q1 crude avg production1.55 mbpdDown from 1.62 mbpd Q1 2025NBS · 25 May 2026
Nigeria electricity sector (Q1 2026)-15.30%Real GDP contractionNBS · 25 May 2026
Nigeria petrol consumption (Apr)51.1m litres/dayDemand up despite high pricesNairametrics · May 2026
DisCo revenue (Feb 2026)₦196.7bn-3.94% m/m from ₦204.7bn JanNERC Feb 2026 factsheet
DisCo collection efficiency (Feb)81.17%+4.84pp m/mNERC Feb 2026 factsheet
DisCo revenue shortfall (Feb)₦80.5bnGap: received vs collectedNERC Feb 2026 factsheet
Nigeria extra oil revenue (2026 proj.)₦6.8TFrom $126 BrentBMI via Nairametrics
World Bank Hormuz supply shock7 mbpdPotential Q2 2026 removalWorld Bank · April 2026
UK clean energy savings£1.7bnSaved in gas importsCarbon Brief · May 2026
UK grid (fossil-free record)>90% cleanMultiple occasions in MayEnergyLive News · May 2026
EU fossil shock response44 actionsEnergy security packageCarbon Brief · May 2026
Global carbon pricing revenue (2025)$107bnRecord high · faster than forecastWorld Bank · May 2026
UNCTAD renewable investment gap$1tn+/yrNeeded by 2030 · 80% privateUNCTAD · May 2026
China carbon metric gapGermany-sizedNew intensity measure obscures totalCarbon Brief · May 2026
Santa Marta fossil fuel summit57 nationsNo new long-term fossil contractsCarbon Brief · Apr 2026
Germany coal exitCompleteLast plant offlineCleanTechnica · April 2026
US renewables vs gas (Q1 2026)RE > GasFirst time in historyCleanTechnica · May 2026
Transition investment 2025$2.3T+8% YoYBNEF ETIT 2026
Electrified transport 2025$893B+21% YoYBNEF
Renewable energy investment 2025$690B-9.5% YoYBNEF
Africa clean energy VC$275m+298% YoY from $69mTechPoint Africa · Mar 2026
Africa clean invest. share of global2%of $3.3T globalIEA / RMI
Lightrock clean energy fund$500mAfrica + Asia growth equityNairametrics · 15 May 2026
UK Green Climate FundReducedUK no longer top donorCarbon Brief · May 2026
Kasi Cloud LOS1 Lagos100 MWWest Africa's first hyperscale AI campusMay 2026
AI data centre battery ratio40–80 MWPer 100 MW AI capacityEnergyLive News · May 2026
Nigeria Grid PAF (Apr)31%+1pp from March · 4,286 MWNERC Apr 2026 factsheet
Nigeria grid load factor (Apr)94%Of available capacity dispatchedNERC Apr 2026
Nigeria gas supply692 mmscf/d43% of requiredNISO Feb 2026
Nigeria EV import duty0%5% removed by FGNairametrics · May 2026
NERC ATC&C loss target (2026)16.64%Revised target for all DisCosNERC 2026
PwC: electricity reform clarityWarningFederal-state regulatory gapsPwC · April 2026
Nigeria EV charging stations<20For 230m peopleNairametrics · May 2026
Ethiopia EVs on road120,000+60%+ of new registrations electricCleanTechnica · IEA EV Outlook 2026
BYD Africa EV market share35%Of African EV salesIEA EV Outlook 2026
Tinubu GenCo settlement₦3.3T15 plants signedStatehouse · 5 Apr
NERC Mini-Grid permit window30 biz daysUp to 10 MWNERC R-001-2026
Form Energy + Crusoe deal12 GWhLargest LDES orderREW · 26 Mar 2026
Battery LCOE (4-hr)<$100/MWh-13%BNEF
Onshore wind LCOE (global)$34/MWhCheapest new-buildIRENA
Africa solar+storage (24hr)$76/MWhBeats new fossilAFSIA
EU carbon allowance~€100/tCO₂+33%ICE
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© 2026 · Data: BNEF, IEA, IRENA, NERC, NBS, Ember, AFSIA, NESO, Lazard, Carbon Brief, CleanTechnica, Nairametrics, World Bank, UNCTAD, PwC